МЕТОДИКА ПРОГНОЗИРОВАНИЯ ЗАКУПОЧНЫХ ЦЕН НА СЫРОЕ МОЛОКО (НА МАТЕРИАЛАХ КОСТАНАЙСКОЙ ОБЛАСТИ)

The methodological aspects of formulation of statistical models of economic processes, in particular, the movement of milk market price, taking into account seasonal factors, are considered. It is noted that when modeling the main results of measurement process in the past, the overestimated optimistic or pessimistic forecasts are observed. Model parameters are too sensitive to changes in economic environment. It was revealed that in the dynamics of milk prices sold by agricultural entrepreneurs of the Kostanay region, relatively low prices are observed during the period of “big milk” from April to August-September. In turn, this season follows with a lag of 2-3 months after the period of mass calving (winter - first half of spring) on farms, especially in house-holds. The dominant position of private farms and small commercial enterprises in the total milk supplies volume to the market has a decisive influence on the seasonality of production and these product costs. It is shown that only with the development of intensive animal husbandry, one should expect equalization of sales volumes of this food product. The methodology of forecasting prices based on chain indices is free of many shortages inherent in methods on using own prices for dairy raw materials, and is characterized by a high degree of accuracy. In addition, it allows to quickly adjust the forecast for milk prices, based on the latest data on their level.

молочное скотоводство, производство, рынок молока, сезонность, цены, статистические модели, корреляция, прогнозирование, планирование, цепные индексы, сүтті мал шаруашылығы, өндіріс, сүт нарығы, маусымдық, баға, статистикалық модельдер, корреляция, болжау, жоспарлау, тізбекті индекстер, dairy cattle breeding, production, milk market, seasonality, prices, statistical models, correlation, forecasting, planning, chain indices

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