agroprobПроблемы агрорынкаProblems of AgriMarket1817-728X2708-9991Казахский научно-исследовательский институт экономики агропромышленного комплекса и развития села10.46666/2026-3.2708-9991.16agroprob-2675Research ArticleЭкономика природопользованияEnvironmental economicsКомплексная методика определения рентабельности адаптивного управления водораспределениемComprehensive Methodology for Determining the Profitability of Adaptive Water Distribution Managementhttps://orcid.org/0009-0002-0747-923XЖандиярЕ. Г.ZhandiyarYe.

Жандияр Есен Ганиулы; докторант Ph.D

050010 пр. Абая, 8, г. Алматы, Казахстан

Zhandiyar Yessen; Ph.D student

050010 Abay Ave., 8, Almaty, Kazakhstan

Essen.zhandiyar@gmail.comhttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-1531-4312PetrovaМ.PetrovaM.

Petrova Mariana; Ph.D, профессор; кафедра «Информационные технологии»

5000 ул. Теодосия Тырновски, 2, г. Велико-Тырново, Болгария

Petrova Mariana; Ph.D, Professor; Department of Information Technologies

5000 Theodosiy Tarnovski str., 2, Veliko Tarnovo, Bulgaria

m.petrova@ts.uni-vt.bgКазахский национальный аграрный исследовательский университетКазахстанKazakh National Agrarian Research UniversityKazakhstanВеликотырновский университет «Св. Кирилл и Св. Мефодий»БолгарияSt. Cyril and St. Methodius University of Veliko TarnovoBulgaria20262210202603181190Copyright © Жандияр Е.Г., Petrova М., 20262026Жандияр Е.Г., Petrova М.Zhandiyar Y., Petrova M.Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://www.jpra-kazniiapk.kz/jour/article/view/2675

Эффективность использования оросительной воды – одна из ключевых задач развития аграрного сектора Казахстана в условиях климатической нестабильности, сокращения водных ресурсов и необходимости цифровой модернизации водохозяйственной инфраструктуры. Цель – разработать методический подход к комплексной оценке адаптивного управления водораспределением, способствующего обоснованию результатов внедрения цифровых технологий в эксплуатацию оросительных систем. Методы – системный анализ научных публикаций и нормативных документов, экономико-математическое моделирование, статистическое исследование, сценарное проектирование режимов водообеспечения, а также расчет интегральных оценочных показателей. Для интерпретации итоговых данных выполнено сравнение традиционной схемы менеджмента с адаптивной моделью, учитывающей прогноз гидрологических условий, фактическую потребность сельскохозяйственных культур в воде и техническое состояние оросительной сети. Результаты свидетельствуют, что адаптивное регулирование способствует снижению непроизводительных потерь воды, уменьшению эксплуатационных расходов, повышению коэффициента водообеспеченности и рационального применения гидроресурсов. Созданный интегральный алгоритм учитывает влияние гидрологической изменчивости на экономические метрики эксплуатации оросительных установок, обеспечивает научное обоснование результатов цифровой трансформации. Выводы подтверждают, что освоение цифровых инструментов ситуационного управления стабилизирует деятельность водохозяйственных учреждений, способствует целесообразному использованию водных запасов и формирует основу для принятия управленческих решений при реформировании оросительных комплексов республики. Практическая значимость исследования состоит в возможности реализации предложенной методики при планировании инвестиций, распределении водных ресурсов и реализации программ цифрового обновления водного хозяйства страны. Рекомендованная организационная схема обеспечивает адаптивный перерасчет объемов водоподачи с учетом эффективности доставки, экономических издержек и риска дефицита воды.

The efficiency of irrigation water use is one of the key tasks for the development of Kazakhstan’s agricultural sector amid climate instability, shrinking water resources, and the need for digital modernization of water management infrastructure. Objective – to develop a methodological approach for a comprehensive assessment of adaptive water distribution management, facilitating the substantiation of results from introducing digital technologies into irrigation system operations. Methods – system analysis of scientific publications and regulatory documents, economic-mathematical modeling, statistical research, scenario modeling of water supply regimes, and calculation of integral evaluation indicators. To interpret the final data, a comparison was made between the traditional management scheme and an adaptive model that considers hydrological forecasts, actual crop water requirements, and the technical condition of the irrigation network. Results show that adaptive regulation contributes to reducing non-productive water losses, lowering operational costs, increasing the water availability ratio, and promoting rational use of hydroresources. The created integral algorithm takes into account the impact of hydrological variability on the economic metrics of irrigation facility operations and provides scientific substantiation for digital transformation results. Conclusions confirm that adopting digital situational management tools stabilizes the activities of water management institutions, promotes the expedient use of water reserves, and forms a basis for managerial decision-making in reforming the republic’s irrigation systems. The practical significance of the study lies in the possibility of implementing the proposed methodology in investment planning, water resource allocation, and digital modernization programs for the country’s water sector. The recommended organizational scheme provides an adaptive recalculation of water supply volumes, taking into account delivery efficiency, economic costs, and water scarcity risks.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.